ZHANG Xiaomei, LIU Chengcheng, Shia Ben-Chang, QIN Lei
The information collection capabilities in the era of big data have brought more complex data structures to time series analysis. Matrix-valued time series are common in the fields of macroeconomics, finance, and management, and are manifested as continuous observations of multiple indicators in multiple locations. The matrix autoregressive model is superior to the vector autoregressive model in terms of model expression and prediction due to its bilinear structure and fewer parameters. However, the matrix autoregressive model only contains the prediction structure of the time dimension, and does not have the prediction structure of the space dimension. For this reason, we added the spatial lag regression term containing the spatial weight matrix, and proposed the time-space lag regression model of matrix-valued time series. We assign scale parameters and adjustment parameters to each location and each variable to test whether the spatial prediction effect exists. Since the proposed model has no endogenous problem, this paper uses the partial iterative least squares method to obtain good parameter estimates. We also give the BIC criterion for model order selection and propose a model rank-reduced estimate. In addition, for the case of thick-tail distribution of the residual term, a robust estimation based on Huber loss function is proposed. With the increase of the sample size of the simulated data, the deviation and variance of the estimator tends to decrease gradually. The actual data shows that the proposed model has moderate model complexity and the smallest out-of-sample prediction error.