MA Xia, GUO Zunguang, LUO Xiaofeng
This paper mainly investigated the transmission dynamics of AIDS model with heterogeneity of infection risk and the protective effect of condoms among gay men. Firstly, the basic reproduction number $R_0$ was defined by the method of Next generation matrix, and the threshold dynamics of the model were analyzed. Secondly, the least squares and Monte Carlo methods were utilized to fit the actual data of HIV/AIDS in China from 2012 to 2019, and the basic reproduction number was estimated to be $R_0 = 1.4386$, and the epidemic transmission trend of HIV/AIDS in China in the next ten years was predicted. Finally, the effect of publicity and education and the usage coverage of condoms among gay men on the risk of HIV transmission were demonstrated. The results illustrated that when the coverage rate of condom reached 0.71 or the propaganda and education level was greater than 0.3, the outbreak of HIV/AIDS could be effectively controlled. The sensitivity analysis of $R_0$ discovered that expanding the level of publicity and education for the susceptible population and gay men, increasing the usage of condoms for gay men, popularizing HIV screening and testing could reduce the basic reproduction number, thereby delaying the transmit speed of AIDS. The research findings could provide suggestions for the control of AIDS to the public health department.