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DECOMPOSITIONS OF THE JOINT DISTRIBUTIONS AND OF THE SECOND MOMENTS FOR RANDOM VARIABLES OVER FINITE FIELDS AND THEIR APPLICATIONS
Chen Hui JIN, Bao Hong LI
Acta Mathematicae Applicatae Sinica
2002, 25 (1):
1-7.
DOI: 10.12387/C2002002
In recent years, along with the advance of technology and industry, the innovation and improvement of forecasting techniques have caught more and more attention. Especially, in the issues of financial engineering, economic development, population policy, and management planning and control, forecasting provides indispensable information in decison-making process. Regarding stock market as an example, the essence of closing price is uncertain and indistinct. Therefore, if we merely consider closing price of yesterday to build our forecasting model, not only will we misestimate the future trend, but also we will suffer unnecessary loss. Based on this reason, in this research we propose an integrated procedure for fuzzy time series modeling and forecasting through fuzzy relation equations. We apply this technique to construct a fuzzy time series model for Taiwan Weighted Stock Index and forecast trend while comparing the forecasting performance by average forceasting accuracy. We strongly believe that this model will be profound of meaning in forecasting future trend of financial market.
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