In this paper, based on the transmission mechanism of COVID-19 and public health intervention measures such as follow-up isolation of close contacts and treatment, we develop a non-autonomous dynamical model to predict the development of epidemic in Hubei Province and evaluate the effectiveness of corresponding control strategies. Firstly, using the data published by Health Commission of Hubei Province, and utilizing the methods of least square and MCMC, we estimate the model parameter values. Then, based on the estimated parameter values, we verify model prediction and estimate peak timing, peak scale and total cases during the epidemic in the Hubei Province. In addition, we reveal that quarantined exposed and existing confirmed individuals can account for a large proportion of the total cases in Hubei Province. Hence, speeding up the screening of the quarantined population and the treatment of the confirmed population can contain epidemic more quickly. Finally, a sensitivity analysis of effective reproduction number reveals that even in the later stage of the epidemic, strengthening the follow-up isolation of close contacts is still the most effective measure.
Key words
COVID-19 /
dynamical model /
effective reproduction number /
epidemic prediction /
control strategy
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References
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